Tuesday, October 27, 2009

WW3NEWS


The new doctrine would allow Russia to carry out a "preventative" nuclear strike against would-be aggressors, a loosening of Moscow's current policy on the use of atomic weapons.

NATO chief reaches out to Russia ahead of visit
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen reached out anew Thursday to Russia, urging alliance nations and Moscow to focus on common interests rather than their differences. "NATO and Russia have many common interests -- in Afghanistan, in combatting terrorism, and in preventing nuclear proliferation," he told defence and security experts at a conference in Bratislava, Slovakia. "So what we need is a relationship that allows us to pursue these long-standing common interests, and which will not be derailed everytime we disagree," he said, before chairing a meeting of NATO defence ministers. "I will visit Moscow in the next few weeks, and I look forard to the opportunity to discuss not just concrete ideas for taking this forward, but also to discuss our relationship more broadly," he said. NATO and its old Cold War foe have been at loggerheads for years over missile defence, arms treaties, their stance on the independence of Kosovo -- where the alliance has a peacekeeping force -- and their attitude toward Iran. But their relations soured badly last year, after Moscow sent its troops into Georgia, and then recognised the indepedence of two breakaway Georgian regions. A slow thaw in ties began early this year. Rasmussen has invited Russia to undertake a joint review of the new security threats they face, as the basis of a new partnership between them, and urged Moscow to take part in talks on NATO reform.

Russia's military must prepare for the kind of large-scale conflict that seemed improbable immediately after the Cold War ended, a top Russian security official said on Thursday. "In 1993, we said that military conflicts have been ruled out, but life has shown this is not the case," Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia's National Security Council, was quoted as saying by news agencies.
"There have been regional and local conflicts, and we cannot rule out large-scale conflicts and we need to be ready for this," Patrushev told reporters after a meeting in Saint Petersburg.
Patrushev made the comments while discussing a new version of Russia's military doctrine, the main strategic planning document for the country's armed forces, which officials have been drafting in recent months.
The current doctrine dates to 2000 and the previous version before that was from 1993, when the collapse of Communism seemed to usher in an age of peaceful relations between Moscow and its former Cold War foe Washington.
Last week Patrushev said the new doctrine would allow Russia to carry out a "preventative" nuclear strike against would-be aggressors, a loosening of Moscow's current policy on the use of atomic weapons.
The new doctrine will be presented to President Dmitry Medvedev by the end of this year, said Patrushev, who is also a former head of Russia's powerful FSB security service, the successor to the Soviet KGB.
earlier related report
NATO faces major budget shortfall: spokesman
NATO faces a budget shortfall of millions of euros in coming years, which is expected to grow as demands on the military alliance increase in places like Afghanistan, a spokesman said Thursday.
"In the next few years we foresee a shortfall of several hundred million euros between what governments have committed to do within NATO budgets when it comes to operations and capabilities, and what they have allocated in terms of money to pay for that," spokesman James Appathurai said.
"That shortfall will only grow as NATO's responsibilities grow as well," he told reporters in Bratislava, where NATO defence ministers are meeting for talks which will include discussion of spending problems.
He said that NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen would urge the 28 member nations to try to set better priorities, pool their resources and assets and strive to be more cost-effective.
"The financial situation in the world ... makes it all the more important that a little bit of imagination and political courage is demonstrated when it comes to the money aspects of what we do," Appathurai said.
A NATO diplomat said Tuesday that the budget hole would amount to between 500 and 600 million euros (750-900 million dollars) in the alliance's infrastructure budget.
A separate budget is used to fund military operations and is, for the moment, unlikely to be greatly effected, he said, on condition of anonymity.
"NATO is facing a resource crunch next year," he said, describing it as "significantly worrying" and "a problem that we have never had before."
An expert also said that about 30 percent of the infrastructure budget was being used for the operation in Afghanistan, on items such as communications, but that the mission, NATO's most challenging, was not under threat.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

China pointing about 1,500 missiles at Taiwan: Taipei official




China now has about 1,500 missiles pointed at Taiwan, with no signs that the build-up is about to stop anytime soon, a spokesman for the island's government said Monday. The figure includes short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the defence ministry spokesman told AFP on condition of anonymity.
"The number of missiles has been rising. We don't know when it will stop increasing," said the spokesman.
He was speaking ahead of the release Tuesday of the ministry's annual report, which will include an updated estimate of China's military capabilities.
In its National Defence Report for 2008, the Taiwan government estimated that China had deployed 1,300 missiles in the area near the island.
China and Taiwan have been governed separately since the end of a civil war in 1949, but Beijing considers the island part of its territory and has vowed to take it back, by force if necessary.
Relations have improved dramatically since the China-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou took office in Taiwan a year ago.
The two sides have held three rounds of negotiations that resulted in regular direct flights, an easing of investment restrictions and a boost in tourism.
However, the missiles remain a major obstacle to improved relations, Ma has said repeatedly.
"I have said many times in the past, before and after my inauguration, that if we are to negotiate a peace agreement with the mainland including military confidence-building measures, they should remove or dismantle the more than 1,000 missiles targeting Taiwan," Ma said in May.


China now has about 1,500 missiles pointed at Taiwan, with no signs that the build-up is about to stop anytime soon, a spokesman for the island's government said Monday. The figure includes short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the defence ministry spokesman told AFP on condition of anonymity.
"The number of missiles has been rising. We don't know when it will stop increasing," said the spokesman.
He was speaking ahead of the release Tuesday of the ministry's annual report, which will include an updated estimate of China's military capabilities.
In its National Defence Report for 2008, the Taiwan government estimated that China had deployed 1,300 missiles in the area near the island.
China and Taiwan have been governed separately since the end of a civil war in 1949, but Beijing considers the island part of its territory and has vowed to take it back, by force if necessary.
Relations have improved dramatically since the China-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou took office in Taiwan a year ago.
The two sides have held three rounds of negotiations that resulted in regular direct flights, an easing of investment restrictions and a boost in tourism.
However, the missiles remain a major obstacle to improved relations, Ma has said repeatedly.
"I have said many times in the past, before and after my inauguration, that if we are to negotiate a peace agreement with the mainland including military confidence-building measures, they should remove or dismantle the more than 1,000 missiles targeting Taiwan," Ma said in May.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Russia says new US missile plan raises 'questions'



'Not bad' chance for US-Russia nuclear deal: Medvedev
The chances of Moscow and Washington reaching a deal on a new nuclear disarmament treaty by a December deadline are "not bad," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview broadcast Friday. US and Russian negotiators have been thrashing out the terms of a successor agreement to replace the landmark 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) before it expires on December 5. "We have given our negotiators the task of finishing a deal in time. I think the chances are really not bad," Medvedev said in a interview with Russia's Channel One state television network. "But it will be necessary to show wisdom on both sides, a desire to listen to one another and an understanding of certain contemporary realities," he said, without elaborating. Medvedev also hailed new US President Barack Obama for being more interested in disarmament than his predecessor, George W. Bush, saying that with the new administration "there is definitely a chance to reach a deal." START, signed in 1991 just before the break-up of the Soviet Union, bound both sides to deep cuts in their nuclear arsenals and forms a cornerstone of arms control efforts between the superpowers. A successful outcome to the talks would help boost Obama's stated vision of a world without nuclear weapons. The next round of closed-door negotiations on START is expected to begin October 19 in the Swiss city of Geneva.

The new US missile defence plan "raises more questions than answers," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday, warning that Moscow could still have objections to the revised missile shield. Lavrov's comments came ahead of a trip to Russia next week by his US counterpart Hillary Clinton, and indicated that ties between the two former Cold War foes remained bumpy despite the US shift on missile defence.
"The statements that are constantly being voiced raise more questions than answers," Lavrov said, referring to the plan unveiled last month by the administration of new US President Barack Obama.
"We would like to receive full clarification," Lavrov added, speaking to reporters during a visit to Moldova for a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a grouping of ex-Soviet countries.
The Obama administration said last month it was scrapping an older plan to deploy anti-missile facilities in eastern Europe, which had been strongly backed by former US president George W. Bush.
Russia, which fiercely opposed the Bush missile shield, welcomed the Obama administration's move but said it needed to study the details.
Under the new plan, Washington would replace the land-based facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic with a sea-based system designed to protect against short- and medium-range missiles from Iran.
Lavrov said Moscow and Washington were now holding talks so Russia could "understand the configuration" of the new system, but he added that reports of some US proposals were raising eyebrows in Moscow.
He said a report that the United States might include Ukraine in its missile defence plans was "rather unexpected."
US publication Defense News reported Thursday that Washington might consider Ukraine as part of its new anti-missile programme and had added the ex-Soviet country "to the list of possible early warning sites."
Defense News cited the source of the report as Alexander Vershbow, US assistant secretary of defence for international security affairs.
"A statement by Alexander Vershbow was rather unexpected," Lavrov said when asked to comment.
"He is a person who's prone to extravagancies," Lavrov added, referring to Vershbow, who is also a former US ambassador to Russia.
Russia has chilly relations with the pro-Western government in Ukraine, which has sought to bring the country into NATO.
Moscow is deeply suspicious of any US military cooperation with former Soviet republics such as Ukraine or Georgia.
Lavrov said he would discuss a range of issues with Clinton during her visit to Russia October 12-14, including Iran and Afghanistan, where US forces are struggling to put down a Taliban insurgency.
"We are not indifferent to what is happening now in Afghanistan," Lavrov said.
Clinton would most likely meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev while in Moscow, Lavrov said.
Separately, Medvedev said in an interview broadcast Friday that there were "not bad" chances for Moscow and Washington to reach a deal on a new nuclear disarmament treaty by the end of the year.
"We have given our negotiators the task of finishing a deal in time. I think the chances are really not bad," Medvedev said in a interview with Russia's Channel One state television network.
"But it will be necessary to show wisdom on both sides, a desire to listen to one another and an understanding of certain contemporary realities," Medvedev added, without elaborating.
Ties between Moscow and Washington have been badly strained in recent years amid disputes over missile defence and last year's Russia-Georgia war, but they have warmed somewhat since Obama's inauguration in January.
earlier related report
US seeks to reassure Russia on missile shield plan
The United States on Friday sought to reassure Russia that Washington had no plans to deploy radars or weaponry in Ukraine as part of its new missile defense plan.
The Defense Department was forced to clarify its plans after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced concern over the new missile shield and said a report that Ukraine might be part of the system was "rather unexpected."
US Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow had told reporters on Thursday that Ukraine and other countries have expressed an interest in hosting a radar site for the shield.
But the Pentagon said: "He (Vershbow) did not make any reference to the stationing of US radars or any other missile defense systems on the territory of Ukraine, and no such proposal has been made to the government of Ukraine."
The United States remained interested in earlier proposals dating back several years that would involve sharing data from Russian early-warning radars in Armavir and in Azerbajian, it said.
President Barack Obama last month said Washington was scrapping an older plan to deploy anti-missile weaponry and radar in Poland and the Czech Republic, a system strongly backed by former US president George W. Bush.
Russia, which fiercely opposed the Bush missile shield, initially welcomed the Obama administration's move but said it needed to study the details.
The new US plan "raises more questions than answers," Lavrov said on Friday during a visit to Moldova for a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a grouping of ex-Soviet countries.
Lavrov's comments came ahead of a trip to Russia next week by his US counterpart Hillary Clinton, signalling ties between the two former Cold War foes remained bumpy despite the US shift on missile defense.
Under the new plan, Washington would replace the land-based sites in Poland and the Czech Republic with a network of sensors and sea-based interceptors designed to protect Europe against short- and medium-range missiles from Iran. The system would eventually add land-based interceptors in about 2015.
In his remarks Thursday, Vershbow said Russian officials initially responded with "euphoria" to Obama's missile shield decision but have since taken a more tempered view.
He said he was hopeful Russia would adopt a more cooperative attitude on the system.
"My sense is the Russians are taking a more objective look and they may be less inclined to throw up political conditions or obstacles," he said.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Russia launches new Mideast arms push



Rosoboronexport officials say regional states have shown interest in Russian arms, including the twin-engined Sukhoi Su-35 fighter. It's equipped with weapons systems capable of engaging several air targets simultaneously.
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Russia's state arms exporter is launching a big drive at the Tripoli air show to sell combat jets, missiles and air-defense systems to Middle Eastern states, including the state-of-the-art S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile that Iran and Syria desperately want to acquire. But the Russians are likely to find considerable competition at the 4th Arab-African Aviation Exhibition and Conference, known as LAVEX-2009, in the Libyan capital that opened Monday.
The four-day arms fair is likely to attract major international defense companies that are falling over themselves to upgrade Libya's long-neglected military as well as supply the Middle East, the largest arms market in the developing world.
But the Russian arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, will also find keen interest in its wares by the Libyan government.
The Libyan leader, Col. Moammar Gadhafi, is miffed that he has not had the access to U.S. arms companies he had expected after he abandoned his clandestine nuclear arms program in 2003 in a high-profile gesture of reconciliation with the international community following decades of isolation.
U.N. trade sanctions that blocked U.S. and Western companies from dealing with Libya were not lifted until 2004, and Washington did not restore full diplomatic relations with Tripoli -- and remove it from its terrorism blacklist -- until 2006.
In the meantime, Gadhafi has turned to Russia and France for his arms requirements.
Gadhafi, who last month marked his 40th year in power, also angered the United States by securing the Aug. 20 release from a Scottish prison of a former intelligence agent convicted for the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am jumbo jet over Scotland that killed 270 people.
The Libyan leader was harshly criticized for giving the former agent, Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi, a rapturous hero's welcome when he arrived back in Tripoli aboard a presidential jet.
For Gadhafi, Megrahi's release on compassionate grounds -- he has terminal cancer -- gave him a powerful platform to demonstrate his ability to defy the West and win domestic and regional plaudits.
So the Russians may find considerable interest in their weapons systems, at a time when Moscow is driving to boost its ailing defense industry and to regain the influence it had in the Middle East and North Africa during the Cold War.
Algeria, Syria, Yemen and Sudan were key defense clients until the collapse of communism in 1991. Iran, once a U.S. ally, is now an important purchaser of Russians arms, and Arab states, even U.S.-oriented Saudi Arabia, are showing interest in Russians weapons systems.
The reason behind the interest being shown by the Saudis, who have reputedly offered Moscow to buy arms worth $2 billion, is primarily political rather than military.
Riyadh wants to use that inducement to persuade Russian not to sell Iran advanced air-defense systems that would protect its controversial nuclear sites.
The Russians say they are confident that these deals will go through, but if the United States and Iran can find a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue, Riyadh may not be so keen to go ahead with such arms deals.
Still, Moscow has delivered arms worth $2.5 billion to the United Arab Emirates and $1 billion to Kuwait in recent years.
Rosoboronexport officials say regional states have shown interest in Russian arms, including the twin-engined Sukhoi Su-35 fighter. It's equipped with weapons systems capable of engaging several air targets simultaneously.
It also carries the new Irbis-E radar, which allows the pilot to detect and track up to 30 air targets while engaging eight of them at one time with its 30mm cannon and eight tons of missiles.
Moscow hopes to export at least 160 Su-35s to Algeria and other countries. Such exports are vital for keeping Russian production lines going to supply Russia's military forces.
But all eyes are likely to be on the S-400 Triumf -- NATO designation SA-21 Growler -- which can intercept and destroy at a range of up to 250 miles and engage six targets at once.
Iran and Syria want advanced air-defense systems to protect their strategic installations against possible U.S. or Israeli attacks, largely aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear facilities.
But U.S. and Israeli pressure on Moscow has so far blocked the sale of the S-300 system, forerunner of the S-400, which would make any airstrikes far more costly than they would be at this time.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

The talks about the Iranian nuclear program, which start in Geneva today (October 1)

The talks about the Iranian nuclear program, which start in Geneva today (October 1) are not likely to end successfully. The US administration already works on the package of single-handed sanctions to suit any fancy. Russia sets out concerns about Iran’s recent missile tests. China offers everyone to calm down. Experts continue to insist that Teheran will find a way to escape any sanctions, which makes a preventive blow on the nation’s nuclear objects inevitable.






Iran has not been able to prove it to the international community that its nuclear program is solely peaceful. Quite on the contrary, Teheran has been persistently intensifying uranium enrichment activities and demonstrating the power of its arms, which pose the biggest danger to Israel, first and foremost.
It would be perfect if Iran unveiled the entire information of its nuclear developments and okayed the inspection of nuclear objects. That does not seem to be likely, though.
As for the reaction of the international community, China urged world leaders not to aggravate the situation with Iran. China develops commercial ties with Iran and views the state as a key ally in the region. Beijing did not change its stance on Iran after the latter announced the opening of an additional uranium enrichment plant.
Unlike China, Russia is ready to support possible sanctions against Iran. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the missile launches, which Iran conducted recently, were banned by international treaties.
The USA does not expect any positive changes in the development of the situation with Iran. White House spokespeople said that the US administration was already working on the plans to toughen sanctions against the Mideastern nation.
New measures can already be taken this year. Most likely, they will affect the energy industry, including the embargo on the deliveries of petroleum products, the sphere of finance, insurance and telecommunications. Washington also intends to cut the import of sanctioned goods to Iran via third world countries.
"Iran has a choice: to comply with its international obligations and that would mean not only offering inspections (of its nuclear facilities) but ending its activities absent the kind of monitoring and supervision that would guarantee that what they are doing is solely for peaceful purposes. The alternative track is greater isolation and international pressure,” Hillary Clinton said.
Many experts say that the new sanctions are inevitable. Some say, though, that they can make the Iranians unite in their support of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Yevgeny Satanovsky, the president of the Institute for the Middle East, said that Iran had no chances to avoid international sanctions. However, the expert doubts that the sanctions will be effective.
“As a matter of fact, international sanctions are not efficient at all. They were effective only with the case of the South African Republic when the political will of its administration regarding the intention to refuse from the military nuclear program coincided with the political will of the countries that introduced the sanctions.
“The Iranian administration does not care. It goes without saying that Iran will be building an A-bomb. It goes without saying that it will finally build it sooner or later. Destroying the nuclear objects in Iran is the only option that one can pursue at this point,” the expert said.